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Investor Letter
Feeling the Wind
Markets behave like nature. Like winds, they blow from all directions, almost randomly. They can feel good at times, but can also give chills that are outright miserable. Successful investors and sailors, on the other hand, recognize that such forces are unavoidable and position themselves with less visible but more powerful forces to reach their destination.
There Are Stronger Forces Beneath The Surface
Just as markets have winds, they also have ocean currents. Although they are less visible, they have repeating, persistent, and predictable patterns that sailors study and use to plan their voyage. It is our interest and job to study these market currents and position our portfolio to ride these massive currents.
What Currents Are We Taking Advantage Of?
One example is the Valuation cycle. Periods of optimism can drive market rallies and create immense wealth in a short span of time. Pessimism, on the other hand, can depress prices but offer attractive opportunities to buy. Understanding how markets swing between extremes allows us to look for opportunities in the right place.
Why The Currents Are Useful To Us?
Like sailors, studying and making use of the valuation cycle helps us to ride out the winds of the market and navigate markets successfully – making use of the valuation peaks to reduce exposures in areas that are less attractive, and troughs to increase exposures in areas that provide better risk-reward going forward.
Do I Need To Wait 10 Years For Valuation Trough?
If investors broaden their opportunity set to other markets, they do not need to wait that long – valuation cycles exist for just about every market. This means ongoing opportunities to invest and diversify.