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致投资者信

January 2022
Artem Verbo Zhg5txgvogq Unsplash

感受风向

市场就和大自然一样,它的风向和强度随时都处于变化之中,有时让投资者感觉良好,有时却让他们深陷痛苦。然而,有经验的投资者就像老道的海员一样,明白这样的力量是无法避免的。但他们会利用到一种隐匿但更强大的力量——洋流,从而顺利到达目的地。

海面之下,蕴藏着更强劲的力量

市场有风向,也有它自己的洋流。虽然它看不见摸不着 ,但它却是一种重复的、持续的、可预测的运动模式,航海者可以通过不断的学习,并依此安排他们的航程。我们的任务是研究市场中的洋流,并基于此让我们的投资组合乘上这些涌动在波涛之下的巨大暗流。

我们需要加以利用的“洋流”,到底是什么?

估值周期就是一个例子。乐观情绪可以推动市场反弹,在短时间内创造巨大的财富。另一方面,悲观情绪往往压低价格,但提供了有吸引力的买入机会。了解市场如何在极端之间波动,可以让我们在正确的地方寻找机会。

为什么说洋流对我们有用?

就像海员一样,研究和利用估值周期可以帮助我们乘风破浪,成功地驾驭市场——我们利用估值峰值来减少在吸引力欠缺的领域投资,而利用估值低谷来增加未来能提供更好风险回报比的领域投资。

我需要干等十年以待估值低谷的出现吗?

如果投资者能将投资机会覆盖到其他市场,便不需要等待几乎每个市场都存在长估值周期。这意味着机会不断涌现,能助力我们做好多元化投资。

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“只买那些如果股市关闭10年你也乐意持有的股票。”

沃伦·巴菲特
有人问我们:“你能保证我赚到钱吗?”实际上,“保证”投资回报是有可能的,但这需要你有正确的视角来看待它。
2019年1月 | 5min read
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“通货膨胀像强盗一样狂暴,像持械抢劫犯一样可怕,像杀手一样致命。”

罗纳德·里根
有一个战胜通货膨胀的简单方法:借助薪水的增长从而以更快的速度增加净资产。但如果不工作,就没有薪水增长可言了。这里有有一个更好的办法,它涉及到……
2019年7月 | 5min read
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“股票市场在短期来看是投票器, 长期来看却是天平 ”

沃伦·巴菲特
情绪反应以及伴随而来的极端悲观和乐观会导致市场波动,为那些以过程和证据为导向的人创造机会。
2020年7月 | 5min read
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[Jul 2021]
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2021年7月 | 5min read
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[April 2020]
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2020年4月 | 5min read
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[Oct 2020]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Cras ullamcorper dui nec nisi eleifend dignissim. Sed in lacinia lorem. Cras placerat, ante in vestibulum tristique, justo ...
2020年10月 | 5min read
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- Benjamin Franklin

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