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月度市场时评
想他人之所不想 得他人之所不得
要点概述
2025年第二季度市场回顾
2025年第二季度，除了美元和石油外，大多数资产类别均出现强劲反弹。以“七巨头”为首的标普500指数，在创纪录的15%跌幅后，实现了最快速的反弹，重回历史高点，但年初至今仍落后于其他区域市场。 信用债和国债在第二季度也取得了温和的正收益，但不及股票表现抢眼。黄金继续上涨5.8%，上半年飙升24.3%，创下自1974年以来最佳年初表现。美元指数录得自1979年以来最差的上半年，跌幅达10.8%。
反弹之后，现在怎么办？
股市在4月低点后仅41天便创下新高，这再次提醒投资者应保持投资，同时主动型策略有助于应对或把握情绪快速转变所带来的机会。尽管涨幅强劲，但在历史高点买入并不一定意味着高风险；从历史经验来看，市场在创下新高后往往还能继续走强。
当前环境同样关键：
有利因素：贸易前景转明、潜在政策利好（如放松监管）、企业盈利表现韧性十足。
需关注的风险： 估值偏高、劳动力市场或企业盈利不及预期、以及贸易紧张局势可能重新升级。
不确定中的收益布局
在“关税风波”引发市场波动时，收益型策略展现出稳定性。传统避险资产如美国国债价格波动反而加剧，而我们偏好的短久期信用资产则提供了更稳定的回报。。灵活性依然关键，灵活配置于如亚洲信贷及优质投资级信用等高收益板块，有助于实现更稳健的收益来源。
展望：审慎乐观
我们对风险资产保持审慎乐观态度，并密切关注关键市场指标，以捕捉潜在拐点信号。股票： 维持正面看法，同时通过配置防御性资产及另类工具（如黄金或另类收益策略）来控制风险。固定收益： 偏好高质量、短久期、对利率变动敏感度较低的信用资产。我们积极规避潜在的“久期陷阱”——即投资者在长期债券中，若通胀意外上行，可能面临资本损失。
更多精彩时评
市场时评 2025年6月
市场时评 2025年5月
市场时评 2025年3月