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月度市场时评
想他人之所不想 得他人之所不得
市场回顾
2025年8月市场情绪经历了从避险到复苏的转变:
8月1日关税截止日期后出台的新关税,叠加疲软的美国就业数据,一度冲击市场。然而,在美联储主席鲍威尔释放鸽派信号(”降息时机已然成熟”)后,股市迅速反弹,标普500指数再
创新高。美国国债因收益率下降(收益率下跌=债券价格上涨)而走强,为投资者带来>1.0%的总回报。避险资产黄金也因降息预期和通胀担忧飙升4.8%。美元指数受美联储鸽派信号和宽松预期影响下跌2.2%。
近期展望:中性
鉴于企业盈利依然稳健,但未来关税对利润率和通胀的影响存在不确定性,且劳动力市场放缓将削弱对风险资产的支持,我们维持中性立场。
配置策略
股票:维持跨区域和跨板块的均衡配置,有助于应对未来多种可能的市场环境。
债券:对高收益债券持谨慎态度,偏好能提供良好收益且更具韧性的优质投资级信用债。
另类资产:在灵活策略中,倾向配置黄金等防御性头寸,以及保险-linked证券(ILS),以获取高收益并降低与传统股票和债券市场的相关性。
聚焦美联储
“”……鉴于政策处于限制性区间,基准展望与风险平衡的转变可能需要调整我们的政策立场“
—美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行会议上的讲话”
通胀压力目前得到控制,劳动力市场有所放缓,市场普遍预期美联储将于2025年9月重启降息。顺势而为,勿逆美联储政策:在其他条件不变的情况下,降息将刺激经济并为市场提供支撑。然而需关注其他驱动因素:在经济持续扩张背景下的降息通常利好市场,但若经济已陷入衰退,则降息往往伴随更剧烈的市场波动。
聚焦美联储收益型投资策略
在宏观前景不明朗、广泛市场板块估值偏高的环境下,收益型投资者可通过以下方式应对:
缩短久期 → 短期债券有助于降低对利率波动的敏感度,提供更稳定的收益并减少波动。
分散配置 → 超越美国市场以分散收益来源。精选债券板块(如新兴市场债务(EMD))有望受益于美元走软。
精选标的 → 估值偏高意味着今日需要更加精选。我们继续在特定投资级和新兴市场债券板块中发现具有吸引力的价值(和收益)。
更多精彩时评
市场时评 2025年7月
市场时评 2025年6月
市场时评 2025年5月