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月度市场时评
想他人之所不想 得他人之所不得
要点概述
市场回顾
2025年4月对市场而言是动荡的一个月,特朗普宣布对等关税措施引发风险资产大规模抛售。在特朗普总统宣布对等关税暂停90天后,市场恢复平静。标普500指数4月-0.7%的回报率看似股市相对平淡,实则极不寻常。该指数当月最大跌幅曾达11.2%,随后才逐步回升。这是载入史册的一个月标普500创下自2008年10月以来最佳单日涨幅,也录得2020年3月以来最惨烈单日暴跌。
硬数据会步软数据后尘吗
硬数据 = 反映客观事实的指标
例如:企业盈利、劳动力市场数据
软数据 = 基于情绪的指标例如:消费者信心调查、企业景气调查关键硬数据(如美国劳动力市场和企业盈利)依然坚挺——这对经济和市场是个积极信号。但需警惕的是,这些数据尚未反映特朗普最新关税威胁的影响。而消费者信心骤降等疲软的软数据,可能预示着更严峻的经济前景即将到来。
保持灵活,以动制动
我们提醒投资者切勿仅凭单一指标(如疲软的软数据)做出决策。这类情绪指标波动剧烈,且当民众——或特朗普总统——改变主意时,数据常被修正。特朗普总统”解放日”关税威胁曾导致标普500当月暴跌11.2%,但威胁来得快去得也快——至少暂停90天的决定,使市场在4月底前收复了大部分失地。在此不确定环境中,审慎之策是保持灵活:避免对单一结果下重注,同时为多重情景做好准备。
收益生生不息
“解放日”波动席卷所有资产类别。即便是传统避险资产美债也未能幸免,上月走势与风险资产同步下跌反弹。但波动中仍有确定性:债券票息持续生成(4月未发生重大企业违约),股票分红也未中断——标普500成分股中94%维持或提高了派息。随着特朗普关税谈判推进,预计市场将反复震荡。当前要务是确保收益流稳定,持续为投资者创造现金流。
更多精彩时评
市场时评 2025年3月
市场时评 2025年2月
市场时评 2025年1月